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Olympic triathlon: Women’s preview

On paper it's a two-woman race. In practice it's likely to be anything but.

Photo by: World Triathlon/ Wagner Araujo

Assuming we do get to see a women’s triathlon at 8 am on Wednesday morning here in Paris, it’s going to be an interesting race to watch. If you were to just look at recent results, it would appear that the race for gold would be between reigning world champion Beth Potter (GBR) and home-country heroine Cassandre Beaugrand. And, while the race very well could turn into a duel between the two, there’s a very good chance that a number of other women will very much be in the medal-picture mix.

So what are we likely to see in the morning?

A group out in front after the swim

While there are so many good swimmers in this race, some of the routine swim leaders could very well be a bit stymied based on their pontoon position – the current is likely to be quite strong in the morning, so being able to dive into the optimal part of the river is going to make all the difference. Beaugrand is one of the sport’s top swimmers, so don’t be surprised to see her near the front along with he likes of Vittoria Lopes (BRA), Maya King (NED), Kate Waugh (GRB) and Bianca Seregni (ITA). The defending gold medalist, Flora Duffy (BER), has only just bounced back from a long injury break, but she seems to be rounding into decent form. At her best, Duffy is a lead-pack swimmer, so don’t be surprised if she’s part of that group. Add to that list Taylor Knibb – as long as she’s recovered from her three-crash time trial last Saturday.

Potter’s swimming has improved dramatically over the last few years, and much of how the day will pan out will depend on how far from the leaders she is hitting T1, because …

Uber-bikers

Flora Duffy wins gold in Tokyo

When she won in Tokyo, Duffy turned out to be the day’s fastest runner. Gone were the days when she had to annihilate the field on the bike and hang on for the run – Duffy proved to be a strong all-rounder who could win the race in multiple ways. That’s not likely to be the case this time around. When she’s on, Beaugrand is one of the most fluid and fast runners you’ll ever see, while Potter’s running pedigree includes competing for England at the 2016 Olympics on the track. Knibb is an excellent runner, too, but if it comes down to a few km to go and Potter and Beaugrand are in the mix, it’s hard to imagine anyone else can compete with those two.

All of which is to say that the two strongest cyclists in the field, Knibb and Duffy, would do well to get clear on the bike – either together or as part of a group. The Tokyo silver medalist, Georgia Taylor-Brown, would also do well to be part of a group like that, as would Americans Taylor Spivey and Kirsten Kasper.

A sprint finish?

Crazily enough, neither Potter or Beaugrand will want this race to come down to a sprint. Their ideal scenario is that the breakaway (yeah, we’re just going to assume it happens) is caught, and they can hit the run without having expended too much energy, and they float away from the rest of the field after a few kms of running. That’s where the likes of Knibb, Taylor-Brown and Duffy have to ensure that the two pre-race favourites start the run on tired legs, or well behind. A long, hard push through the 10 km run suits all three of those women just fine, and they’ll be tough to catch.

If there’s a group still together in the closing kms of the race, though, there are suddenly a number of women who will be ready (and able) to put everything on the line to go for a medal. German’s Lisa Tertsch and Laura Lindemann have shown incredible sprinting power this year. Lindemann outsprinted Taylor-Brown and 2016 gold medalist Gwen Jorgensen at the indoor World Cup in Lievin, while Tertsch managed to outsprint Potter for the silver medal at WTCS Cagliari. An inspired Emma Lombardi could use all the energy from the French crowds to find the gear that has been close, but so far eluded her to beat Beaugrand and Potter at their best.

So where does that leave us? Basically that we’re in for an exciting morning of racing – that is, of course, as long as there is racing in the morning.

Stay tuned – we’re here in Paris and we’ll be covering all the action for you.