Olympic triathlon: Men’s preview

If we do see the men head off at 8 am tomorrow morning for the triathlon, there’s one thing we can be certain of – with three of the race favourites representing the home country, there is going to be a lot of noise out on the course. How much all that noise serves as motivation versus excess pressure will be the story of the Olympics for the three Frenchmen in the field – Leo Bergere, Dorian Coninx and Pierre Le Corre. Bergere and Coninx have won the last two Grand Final races and took the world championship in the process, so they have both proven they can come through on the big day. Both times they ended up beating the two men who are expected to lead the way here in Paris – Great Britain’s Alex Yee and New Zealand’s Hayden Wilde.

The problem is, though, that over the last few years Yee and Wilde have cemented themselves at the top of the short course world, despite those world championship losses. The way the course is set up here in Paris, it’s going to be difficult to breakaway on the bike and, if the race turns into a footrace, Yee and Wilde have ruled the roost when it comes to run splits over the last few years.

Olympic Triathlon preview: Who, what, where and how to watch

Are there scenarios where Yee, the silver medalist from Tokyo, and Wilde, the bronze medalist from those games, don’t take the win? Absolutely. Which is what makes tomorrow’s race so interesting. (And, yes, I know that Kristian Blummenfelt beat them both in Tokyo, but he’ll have his work cut out trying to run away from the pair again – he’ll need a different race plan to pull it off, I believe.)

Swim

The day could be set for many athletes based on their position on the pontoon to start the race. The draw is based on your Olympic ranking, and all the top men ended up choosing spots next to each other, trying to take advantage of the strong current in the Seine.

The three Frenchmen are likely to be close to the lead out of the water, alongside the likes of South Africa’s Henry Scchoeman and Jamie Riddle, Brazil’s Miguel Hidalgo and possibly Japan’s Kenji Nener.

If a group can open up a bit of space in the Seine, then fly up the 36 steps to transition and start the bike with a bit of a gap, things could get interesting. Add to that another “if” – can Germany’s Jonas Schomburg somehow be part of that group? If so, he will likely serve as the driving force that might be able to help a pack stay away.

The problem with that scenario, though, is that we’re likely to see Blummenfelt, Belgian Marten Van Riel and Wilde driving the chase pack up to the front. And there’s a good chance that they’ll be towing the man who beat all the Frenchmen (and the rest of the field, for that matter) to the finish line at the test event last year: Yee. While the rest of the field might try to isolate him during the bike ride, that’s not going to be an easy task.

Hard bike, tired legs?

What all this action on the bike could do, though, is take enough of the punch out of Yee’s legs that opens the door for some other players to make their move for the podium. The three Frenchmen are probably the most well-rounded of all the competitors in the race (although you should probably add Vasco Vilaca to that list, too). Add to that all the support they’ll be getting out on the course and the added adrenalin boost that will come with all that, and you have a formula that could help them find another gear at the end of a tough run.

In my mind, the only way Blummenfelt defends his title is if the bike is hard enough that “only” a 29:30 or 29:40 10 km wins the day. (Yee ran 29:00 at the test event last year.) There are a number of other men who seem to run well off of a tough pace, too, including Wilde and American Morgan Pearson, which makes the Norwegian’s title defence that much harder.

And, in the not-completely-unlikely scenario that we see a sprint finish, all bets are off. Virtually all of the favourites in this field – especially Le Corre, Coninx, Vilaca, Wilde and Yee – have been involved in some incredible sprint finishes over the last few years. Were those just prep for a sprint to the line in Paris?

Stay tuned. Whenever this men’s race goes off this week, it’s going to be incredibly exciting!